tim harford

the god complex
no matter how complicated the problem - you think you have the correct solution

the complexity of the world is huge.. that's where the tendency of a god complex comes in..
we can solve them, but with humility

as soon as you step back from the god complex and say..
let's just try a bunch of stuff. let's find a systematic way to try a bunch of stuff...
... then you will figure out your problem

why the us economy is the best.. 10% of businesses disappear every year
it doesn't come because you put someone incredible in charge

people tell him.. trial and error is obvious and simple.. why do you keep flapping about it...
his response.. when schools start teaching children some things don't have answers, stop giving lists of questions with certain answers, that some authority behind the desk has decided, and if you don't get them you are either lazy or stupid..

when a politician that wants to work on ed or health stands up and says.. i have no idea how to do this, i've got 6 or so places to start, we'll try those, throw out the ones that don't work...
and when you and i are brave enough to vote for that sort of politician..

then i will admit that trial and error is obvious and simple


great combo ted with kathryn schulz

it feels so much better to be a god, not to be challenged, feels so much better simply to lay down the law

http://mathworld.wolfram.com/Taniyama-ShimuraConjecture.html
Taniyama
it's very difficult to make good mistakes